Promises Over Prudence. How Political Short-Termism Is Starving Australia’s Future

Australia is on a collision course with economic ruin, and the culprits are the very leaders entrusted to steer the ship. The government’s refusal to rein in spending isn’t a sign of compassion, it’s a calculated play for votes, rooted in populist promises that sacrifice the nation’s fiscal health on the altar of short-term political gain. In 2025, this reckless approach has fuelled rampant inflation, gutted the savings of the middle class, and left the most vulnerable, single parents, the disabled, and the elderly, trapped in a vicious cycle of rising costs and stagnant support. The future is being starved to feed the present, and the bill is coming due faster than anyone wants to admit.

Let’s start with the numbers. Federal spending is projected to hit $785.7 billion in 2025-26, a staggering 28.5% of GDP that’s up from 24.1% just seven years ago. This isn’t growth, it’s pure gluttony. The budget deficit for 2025-26 sits at $42.1 billion, with gross debt ballooning to $1.22 trillion by 2028-29. Interest payments alone are eating up at least 9.9% of the budget over the next decade, a burden that will only grow if global rates rise (which is highly predicted). Meanwhile, inflation, which Treasury optimistically pegs at 3.0% for 2025-26, is already outpacing wage growth, with private sector wages up just 3.3% in 2024 against a backdrop of 18.9% consumer price increases over the past four years. The middle class is being hollowed out, and the vulnerable are left to fend for themselves in a system that promises much but delivers little, and costing more.

The root of this mess lies in a political culture obsessed with optics over outcomes. Take the 2025 budget’s big-ticket items, $17.1 billion in tax cuts over the forward estimates, with the base rate dropping to 14% by 2027-28, and $1.8 billion in extended energy rebates through 2025. On the surface, these look like lifelines for struggling households. Dig deeper, and they’re sugar pills, temporary relief that masks a chronic disease. The tax cuts, while putting a few extra dollars in pockets, are dwarfed by the inflationary pressures they help fuel. A worker on average earnings might see a $536 annual tax cut by 2027-28, but that’s cold comfort when grocery prices have spiked 8% due to floods and supply chain woes, and energy bills, even with rebates, remain a persistent drain due to government energy policies. The government’s own data shows real disposable income per capita declining, with consumption flatlining in 2024’s second quarter. People aren’t spending more, they’re saving less, with the savings ratio at a meagre 3.2%, driven by fear, not frugality.

Then there’s the welfare expansion, a sacred cow no Labor or Liberal politician dares touch. The government has poured $2.6 billion into aged care wage hikes and $3.6 billion for early childhood educators in 2025, alongside $175.4 million more for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (scam) (NDIS) over five years. These aren’t bad ideas in a vacuum, most agree care workers and the disabled deserve support. But when public sector wage growth (2.0% in 2024) outstrips the private sector’s (1.2%), and the NDIS’s growth is only curbed by $144 billion in more promised savings through reforms, that have never eventuated yet, the math doesn’t add up. This isn’t sustainable investment, it’s borrowing against tomorrow to buy VOTES today.

Federal and state spending rose 7.9% to $953 billion in 2023-24, and another 8.7% increase is slated for 2024-25. This fiscal stimulus might have staved off a recession, but it’s also stoked inflation, with the Producer Price Index for businesses up 18.4% over four years, matching consumer price hikes and hitting manufacturing and construction even harder at 30% and 33%, respectively.

The middle class feels this squeeze most acutely. Too “rich” for welfare but too strapped to weather the storm. Mortgage rates, tied to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 4.35% cash rate, have hammered households, with 70% of borrowers on variable rates. Repayments on a $500,000 mortgage have soared by hundreds monthly since 2022, and with net migration still at 260,000 in 2025-26, housing demand keeps prices sky-high. The “Help to Buy” scheme (scam), backed by $6.3 billion, might ease deposits, but it does nothing for the underlying cost crisis. Far worse, it rewards the economically retarded and unsophisticated, those who couldn’t figure out how to save a deposit, in direct competition with investors and other homebuyers.  This has a predictable outcome, they’ve done this several times prior with the same devastating results. When there are shortages, you are supposed to ramp up production, not demand.

Meanwhile, the middle class’s purchasing power erodes, urban consumption has been declining for over five quarters, and automotive sales, a bellwether for demand, are languishing, especially in the affordable sub-$20,000 category. Two-wheelers, a lifeline for many, are slapped with a 28% GST, further pricing out mobility.

The vulnerable are no better off. Single parents and the disabled, often reliant on fixed payments like Family Tax Benefit or the NDIS, face a brutal reality, their support isn’t keeping pace with costs. In 2017-18, one-parent households had an average weekly disposable income of $546, compared to $562 for couple families, a gap that’s likely widened with inflation. Payments like JobSeeker or rent assistance, up 15% in 2023 to a maximum of $31 extra per fortnight, sound helpful, but they’re drops in a bucket when rents, groceries, and energy bills are soaring.

The government’s refusal to meaningfully increase base rates for these programs, despite a 20% reduction in HELP debt and a $67,000 repayment threshold for 2025-26, shows where priorities lie, flashy, voter-friendly gestures over structural reform. The result? Families are skipping meals, forgoing medical care, and living in cars, while grassroots movements scramble to fill the gaps the state won’t.

This isn’t just bad policy, it’s a betrayal of justice itself. A fair society doesn’t borrow from its children to pacify its voters. It doesn’t promise liberty while chaining citizens to debt and inflation. And it doesn’t claim integrity while papering over deficits with platitudes. The government’s actions violate the principle that resources should be distributed to maximise the position of the least advantaged, instead creating a system where the middle class is crushed and the vulnerable are left to fend for themselves. The rule of law demands transparency, not sleight-of-hand budgeting that hides the true cost of today’s promises.

Any reputable Economist would see this for what it is, it’s a failure of incentives. When politicians prioritise re-election over responsibility, they distort the signals that should guide policy. Subsidies like energy rebates suppress prices artificially, headline inflation dropped 25.2% in 2024 thanks to these measures, but they don’t fix supply issues. They are creating dependency, not solutions. Wage hikes without productivity gains are a mirage, as businesses, facing a 6.8% profit drop in 2024, cut jobs or raise prices to cope. And debt? It’s a gamble on future growth that’s looking increasingly shaky, with GDP growth at a measly 0.8% in 2024, far below the 2.25% hoped for in 2025-26.

Australia’s fiscal recklessness leaves it exposed to economic shocks, like tariffs, rising global rates, a commodity bust, or a slowdown in China. A single percentage point rise in rates could add billions to debt servicing costs, already a growing burden.

Psychologically, it’s a disaster. The middle class isn’t being greedy, they’re exhausted, their resilience eroded by constant financial strain. The vulnerable aren’t lazy, they’re desperate, trapped in a system that offers just enough to survive but not enough to thrive. Trust in institutions is fraying, over 200,000 killed through iatrogenesis to the end of 2024, the number of people dying in their homes because they refuse to go to a bureaucratic run hospital is killing Australians, maybe not as many as the bureaucrats do themselves, but it’s an obvious problem when the health system has all but collapsed. When Trust is all but gone society frays too. Crime rises, stress festers, and the social contract wobbles.

Crowd behaviour, and voting behaviour reflects this discontent. Polls show Labor’s primary vote dipping below 30%, down from 32.5% in 2022, as cost-of-living pressures dominate voter concerns. Living standards have hit a 50-year low, and the opposition’s immigrant-bashing offers no real fix, just a distraction from the spending addiction at the core. People aren’t buying the spin, and they shouldn’t. History warns of the consequences, what happens when nation spend beyond their means face decline, not prosperity. Australia ‘s current trajectory is clear.

The Current Houso in charge, met with international disdain as he continues to use taxpayers funds to sponsor a recognised terrorist organisation. The UNWRA staff actively involved in holding hostages for Hamas. He echoed his flexibility and willingness to have a coalition with the greens, a radical activist party that has openly preached support for higher taxation, sexual mutilation of minors and property confiscation.

The antidote requires courage, not populism and it won’t get better with radicalism. Slash spending where it’s bloated, the public sector excess, defund NGO’s not essential services like police, and emergency services. End subsidies that distort markets, like the $2 billion for “green aluminium” that drives up energy costs while chasing ideological dreams. Reform welfare to focus on the truly needy, not every voter with a power bill. And above all, stop borrowing against the future, net debt at 23.1% of GDP by 2028-29 is a chain around our children’s necks.

A lower-tax, lower-spending model, paired with productivity reforms like scrapping anti-competitive clauses, could boost private sector growth, as seen with the 1.3 million extra hours worked weekly from tax cuts. But that takes discipline, not promises.

Australia’s leaders are playing a dangerous game, trading prudence for VOTES. Inflation is the price we pay today, stagnation is the cost we’ll bear tomorrow. The middle class is bleeding, the vulnerable are trapped, and the future is being starved. It’s time to stop promising the moon and start building a foundation that lasts. Anything less is a betrayal of the nation we claim to be. The recent nudging by the Chinese Navy was disturbing, not as disturbing as the enemies here at home, nor have they killed anywhere as many as the bureaucratic decisions of the unelected. From the author.

The opinions and statements are those of Sam Wilks and do not necessarily represent whom Sam Consults or contracts to. Sam Wilks is a skilled and experienced Security Consultant with almost 3 decades of expertise in the fields of Real estate, Security, and the hospitality/gaming industry. His knowledge and practical experience have made him a valuable asset to many organizations looking to enhance their security measures and provide a safe and secure environment for their clients and staff.