Why is Welfare so popular?

In the diagram above, which mirrors how socialists believe welfare operates, the curve rises upward. Implying that increasing welfare and dependency supposedly produce positive outcomes before levelling off into a stable, prosperous equilibrium. This reflects a theoretical ideal, not historical or empirical reality.

In essence it’s a derivation of the Laffer Curve on taxation and equally failing in nuance.

Here’s the logic that underpins their belief:

The Core Assumption

Socialist theorists assume that dependency is not weakness but social justice. They believe that when the state guarantees income, housing, and healthcare, individuals are liberated from economic necessity. In their minds, freedom means freedom from want, not freedom of choice or independence.

Under this premise, each additional layer of welfare supposedly enhances well-being, stabilizes society, and diminishes inequality. The state becomes the provider, the regulator, and ultimately, the parent of all citizens.

The UBI Illusion

Universal Basic Income (UBI) is seen as the final stage of this curve, where the state provides a guaranteed living wage to every citizen, regardless of work. The theory holds that by removing the need to work for survival, people will:

• Pursue creativity and innovation,

• Volunteer or engage in “meaningful” pursuits,

• Eliminate poverty through redistribution, and

• End social stratification.

The socialist narrative sees UBI as the freedom point—a post-scarcity utopia where automation and taxation fund permanent leisure.

Why They Believe It Works

They assume:

• The productive base (workers, businesses, taxpayers) will continue generating enough wealth, despite weakened incentives.

• The bureaucracy can distribute wealth efficiently and fairly.

• Recipients will use their free time responsibly, not destructively.

• Inflation, moral hazard, and corruption will somehow be “managed.”

The model treats human nature as benevolent and static—that once basic needs are met, people will act rationally, altruistically, and socially.

Why the Curve is Reversed in Reality

In reality, as second diagram below shows, each increment of dependency erodes production, self-reliance, and moral discipline. A system designed to relieve poverty becomes a machine that manufactures it.

Rather than rising toward freedom, societies that follow this trajectory descend into bureaucratic coercion, inflation, rationing, and finally, social collapse. The UBI “freedom” that socialists imagine ultimately mirrors the freedom of a zoo animal, safe, fed, and caged

The reality is closer to an economic and psychological trap than to the utopian promise.

Welfare, at first, softens hardship and buys stability. But each increment of state support substitutes external provision for personal initiative. The curve begins with relief and ends with regression.

Incentive Decay

Every subsidy dulls the motive to produce. When survival no longer depends on effort, effort becomes optional. As fewer contribute, more demand aid, forcing the state to expand taxation, debt, or money creation. Productive citizens shoulder the cost until they too see futility in exertion. The system thus eats its own base of independence.

Dependency Psychology

Long exposure to unearned benefits rewires identity. Gratitude turns into entitlement, agency into victimhood. People accustomed to guaranteed sustenance cease to see freedom as valuable—it demands effort and uncertainty. Welfare transforms moral hazard into a culture: irresponsibility without consequence, and complaint as currency.

Bureaucratic Control

The apparatus required to administer welfare becomes an authority over life choices. To preserve funding, agencies must measure, monitor, and manipulate recipients. “Assistance” evolves into surveillance. Compliance becomes a condition for subsistence. What was once a right to work becomes an obligation to obey.

Political Capture

Politicians find in dependency a renewable vote supply. Each promise of increased welfare purchases allegiance. Opposition to expansion is portrayed as cruelty. As dependency blocs grow, fiscal restraint becomes politically suicidal. Democracy corrodes into clientelism—the many dependent elect rulers who live off the few productive.

Economic Collapse and Democide

When production falters and currency inflates, the state tightens control. To preserve order, it rations, censors, and punishes dissent. Those who resist redistribution are labelled exploiters. History’s pattern, like Soviet collectivization, Mao’s Great Leap, Venezuela’s socialism, this is consistent: welfare states, when insolvent, resort to coercion, force and murder. Serfdom follows dependency; democide follows collapse.

Welfare begins as compassion but matures into control. The state that promises to provide everything must, in time, own everything and everyone. And they tell you "you will be happy!"

In short, socialists read the welfare curve upside down:

They see government dependency as progress toward liberation, when in fact, it’s the slow march toward submission.

From the author. My first and most important duty is to my family. I was asked why do so many people in Australia support welfare. I'm not ashamed to admit, my first response was because the country is the "lucky" country not the intelligent one. Then reminiscent of the story I heard about Arthur B. Laffer, I picked up a piece of paper roll and I proceeded to explain it to my son through the use of diagrams. Maybe in 10 years a prominent journalist or author will make this post famous for the diagrams I have attached? Maybe someone will use them to explain the same flaws to their own children.

The opinions and statements are those of Sam Wilks and do not necessarily represent whom Sam Consults or contracts to. Sam Wilks is a skilled and experienced Security and Risk Consultant with 3 decades of expertise in the fields of Real estate, Security, and the hospitality/gaming industry. Sam has trained over 1,000 entry level security personnel, taught defensive tactics, weapons training and handcuffs to policing personnel and the public. His knowledge and practical experience have made him a valuable asset to many organisations looking to enhance their security measures and provide a safe and secure environment for their clients and staff.